The forecast looks to be generally on track…slightly elevated amounts of cloud cover (as we talked about this morning) has played a part in keeping the air slightly cooler than anticipated (a lot of 85s and fewer of 87s, 88s and 89s than anticipated in The Connecticut River Valley). The sea breeze may also be a minor factor in this outcome; however, overall, it's an enjoyable afternoon that will lead to an equally nice evening, with temperatures settling back through the 70s by 7 PM.
Today, the weather will be perfect for the beach, boating, yard work – just about anything outside. By noon, the sea breeze will start to develop, helping to increase the humidity a smidgeon. We'll have a blend of sun and clouds in the sky while, at the same time, the air temperature will shoot up into the middle and upper-80s in much of the state, but remain in the upper-70s and low-80s at the beaches along the Shoreline. One small wrinkle in tomorrow's forecast is an approaching warm front. Most models maintain that its effect on our weather will be minimal; however, one model is forecasting showers primarily over northern New England, but with a few southern "peripheral" showers possibly brushing the Connecticut-Massachusetts line. It's something I'll be watching tomorrow, with hopes that the "outlier" model is truly "out to lunch."
Monday will be a sizzler. The warm front will have passed and opened humidity the door, letting sticky weather into New England. With dew point temperatures into the 60s, we will have afternoon highs close to 90°F inland and in the low- and mid-80s along the Shoreline…it'll be the type of weather when you sweat by merely existing.
Tuesday through Thursday, we'll be in the sultry soup with thunderstorms on top. Lows will only fall into the upper-60s and low-70s (truly dreadful for sleep) and highs will be around 90°F each of those afternoons. The humidity will be really high and a slow-moving front, in conjunction with a rich feed of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico, will render us vulnerable to showers and thunderstorms -- especially in the afternoons. Tuesday, the storms will be relatively isolated in nature, since the "lift" from the front will still be well to our west. Wednesday and Thursday, however, the front will be much closer and the thunderstorms more numerous. Heavy downpours and a few strong storms are possible. We may also have to be mindful of "low-level shear" with this set-up. The general front orientation and richness of low-level moisture make me wonder about a little "funny business" with stronger storms. In 2008, 2012 and last year, this general set-up also caused a stronger storms in New England…it's too early to tell if all of the details are present for anything like those situations, but I thought I would let you know that we'll be keeping an extra close eye on this situation because of the general pattern we see…
The models portend a slow clearing Friday morning – the Fourth of July. By afternoon, drier air should be filtering into the region, ridding us of the uncomfortable muggies, and freeing the sky of clouds and thundershowers by the afternoon. Lows will be more comfortable, near 60°F and afternoon highs will be in the 80s. And next Saturday looks awesome, starting in the upper-50s in the morning, the day will be graced with low humidity and warmth as highs rise into the mid-80s under a partly to mostly sunny sky.
By Friday and Saturday, we may be also tracking the first tropical system of the season. The European Model is fairly aggressive in forecasting the formation of tropical system just off the Florida coast that will then move north into the Carolinas. Just this morning, the National Hurricane Center identified a 40% probability of storm development in that area. Not only is it WAY too early to be confident about the forecast at hand, it is even more speculative to conjecture what its effects would be here in southern New England, if any. But, I thought you should know that one model is starting to forecast some trouble in the tropics…
Meteorologist Mike Cameron
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