Strong thunderstorms are possible today. It is an "Early Warning Weather Day."
We're already seeing thunderstorms across the state. So far, they have been merely efficient rain-makers with no severe element to them. Luckily, they have been sailing at 35-40 MPH, eliminating the concern for long-duration heavy rain that would lead to flooding. A few more thunderstorms are possible later this morning as another wave moves across the state. I will be keeping a close eye on these, too, for signs of growing into strong storms. So far, they have remained under control.
The real problem with severe thunderstorms may be this afternoon. In the wake of morning thunderstorms, we will have a few hours respite. During that time, it will be muggy and increasingly warm. The sun may come out for a short time in some areas, helping to warm the air into the low-80s. Strong jet stream wind aloft is present today, in combination with the tropical humidity and heat will help create the buoyancy necessary to send air parcels high in the sky, forming new thunderheads this afternoon. Downpours and lightning are a sure bet with any convection that fires. Strong wind that could be damaging may also be part of the strongest cells. And, although the atmosphere is slightly warmer than ideal, hail may also accompany some of the biggest updraft-downdraft complexes. And, finally, marginal low-level "shear" or turning of the wind with altitude, in combination with low cloud bases makes me wary of the possibility of a weak spin-up tornado. The probability of such an event is highly remote; however, since it's not an absolute zero chance, it bears mentioning that I will be hunting radar for early clues of rotation in any thunderstorms that are on the scope.
Monday may also bring unsettled weather. As early as the predawn hours, more thunderstorms are possible as a low pressure system and a cold front will pass through New England. After the early thunderstorms clear, hazy sun will appear and high temperatures will be in the 80s. After one final line of thunderstorms moves through during the afternoon, the humidity will start to drop, possibly sending the dew points from near 70 degrees into the comfortable 50s.
The front will finally move off the New England coast by Tuesday then we can look forward to dry, comfortable weather for much of next week. The jet stream will dip southward across much of the Eastern United States next week. That means the final days of July will be a little cooler than normal. The air will be just a bit unstable with a trough hovering in the upper regions of the atmosphere. Thus, we can't rule out a few pop-up afternoon showers with cool nights and dry, pleasantly warm days.
By Friday and Saturday, a new storm system will arrive and start to bring humidity and the chance for thunderstorms back into the Northeast. We should expect to see showers by Friday afternoon. And, at first glance, Saturday looks to be a rather wet day.
Enjoy your weekend!
Meteorologist Mike Cameron
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