Some of us have already needed the galoshes. Slow-moving thunderstorms have continued to plague the state in areas mainly northwest of Hartford, save the Bolton-Andover-Vernon area, where radar estimates 4" of rain fell near rte. 85 in a matter of an hour and a half. Most of the showers northwest of Hartford have also had rain rates of 4" per hour; however, those downpours have been brief enough that flooding has not yet been a serious problem (serious enough to prompt a flash flood warning, anyway).
After sunset, these showers will collapse. Once they do, we'll have a period of several hours before a light general rainfall will work into the state from the south. By morning, light rain will be enveloping the state, with the steadiest and heaviest most likely occurring in southeastern Connecticut. By morning, temperatures across the entire state will fall into the mid-60s.
Saturday will likely begin with a light general rainfall in most locations. Occasionally moderate and heavy rain may also come, especially southeast of Hartford. This rain is all due to an area of low pressure now parked off the DelMarVa Coast. This low pressure center will follow a stalled front up the coast and glide southeast of New England. Closer to the low, more rain will fall; hence, areas southeast of the Capitol will have more rain throughout the morning. By early afternoon, the steady rain will move northeast and the sun may even peek through the clouds for a time during the middle and late afternoon. Should we see sun, middle and upper-70s are likely high temperatures. If the clouds prevail, count on low-70s at best.
Sunday will likely be drier than rain, but not totally rain-free. At some points during the day, pop-up showers and thunderstorms may interrupt an otherwise muggy and mainly cloudy day. Should the day turn out to be sunnier than we are expecting now, that development would work toward our disfavor, likely fueling the showers and thunderstorms more, making them stronger than we now anticipate. Right now, we think clouds will be the dominator, keeping highs in the 70s, thereby toning down storm strength. It will be a situation we'll be watching closely.
Shorts and umbrellas are both good things to have lined up for wear on Monday. Partly sunny, humid and warm weather will come with highs in the mid-80s. By mid-afternoon, a weak front will arrive from the northwest, which will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms. Given the level of heat and humidity and the presence of the front, I suspect that a few of the thunderstorms may turn strong.
Tuesday will be rain-free, sunny and warm. High pressure will ensure the good weather. Another cold front will bring thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon after a partly sunny and warm start. After the front moves through, Thursday and Friday will be pleasantly dry, sunny and warm with highs in the low-80s.
Tropical Storm Bertha will be something we also need to watch closely. Now, with 50 MPH winds, this storm is expected to slowly intensify as it enters the Caribbean, moving west, then turning north and then northeast. It will come within a few hundred miles of the East Coast. As of now, it is projected to stay out to sea; however, if the forecasted wind pattern aloft chances, so too could our avoidance of Bertha.
Have a great weekend!