Good morning everyone!
Most of today will be partly sunny and increasingly warm. By this afternoon, we will have reached a high in the lower and middle 80s, fairly close to the normal high of 84°F. By mid-afternoon, however, thunderstorms could be back in the forecast. The warmth and humidity of the day, in conjunction with a "short wave" moving through New England will create favorable conditions for these T'storms. Right now, northwestern Connecticut seems to be the area most prone to seeing thunderstorms with the most favorable time between 2 PM and sunset. Some storms may be strong with downpours, frequent lightning, small hail and gusty wind. Although the shortwave is forecast to weaken, it has had a history of producing a few severe thunderstorms, so we won't rule out one or two storms requiring a severe thunderstorm warning this afternoon.
Tomorrow could turn out to be similar to today. Partly sunny, humid and warm conditions will come again with lows in the 60s during the morning and highs in the mid-80s during the afternoon. Although there will not be a shortwave overhead, the jet stream wind aloft may bring about enough shear to introduce a few afternoon thunderstorms again. As is the case today, a few storms may turn severe tomorrow.
Plan on more thunder storms Wednesday. With humidity, partly sunny skies and afternoon highs in the 80s, it's looking pretty good, that is until later in the afternoon when an approaching cold front may bring a fairly organized group of showers and thunderstorms. Due to the timing of the arrival of this front, we anticipate some of the storms to become strong. We will be on the watch for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.
The cool front will pass through Wednesday night, allowing drier air to work into Connecticut starting Thursday. The transition may not be entirely clean, as an upper level low will come behind the front. This system will be more trouble for northern New England than Connecticut, leading to a few instability showers in the mountains. Here, we will likely have periods of clouds from time to time, but no rain.
Friday through Sunday will be great. The air will be dry, leading to sunny warm afternoons with highs in the 80s and pleasant, cool nights with lows in the upper-50s and low-60s.
Tropical Storm Bertha is a storm we continue to watch. Now, with 45 MPH winds, this storm is expected to slowly intensify as it exits the Caribbean, moving north and then northeast. It will come within a few hundred miles of the East Coast sometime mid-week. As of now, it is projected to stay out to sea; however, if the forecasted wind pattern aloft chances, so too could our avoidance of Bertha. At this time, we think rip-tide and higher surf will be the only effects in New England, primarily at east-facing shorelines.
Have a great week!
Meteorologist Mike Cameron with Scot Haney
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