FIRST TO ALERT: Potential tropical development in the Gulf for Memorial Day weekend

FIRST TO ALERT: Potential tropical development in the Gulf for Memorial Day weekend

(WTVM) - It may only be Monday, but many of us are already looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend. Bear in mind, if you're traveling anywhere across the Southeast and Gulf Coast states, wet weather looks to rule the forecast over the holiday weekend. The question is, will this be a result of tropical mischief brewing?

For a while now, our weather models have been hinting at a developing tropical system in the Gulf over Memorial Day weekend. We are still several days out from any development taking place, so there is still plenty of uncertainty on the inevitable track of this potential system. Nevertheless, our impacts look the same: heightened rain chances and additional periods of soaking rainfall over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center has given a 20 percent chance of tropical development in the Caribbean over the next five days, that could eventually move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico, and put a damper on Memorial Day plans along the coast and areas inland.

As of Monday afternoon, both of our big long-range weather models (the American and European) are not completely on the same page as far as track and organization of the system. The European models suggest a more organized, tropical low developing late in the work week and slowly meandering over Louisiana through Memorial Day. Meanwhile, the American model favors a track that hugs the east coast of Florida and remains more disorganized. Nevertheless, an influx of tropical moisture across the Deep South over the holiday weekend suggests either way that the Chattahoochee Valley could pick up an additional 3-4 inches of rain into early next week, thanks to the development of this low pressure in the Gulf.

We'll continue to fine-tune the forecast for you as we head closer to the holiday weekend. In the meantime, keep the umbrella and WTVM Weather app handy for the week ahead-- scattered thunderstorms remain in the forecast each afternoon.

Get more on the forecast while your on-the-go with our FREE WTVM weather app, available for download here.  It's also a great place to stream our newscasts if you can't make it to a TV.

Copyright 2018 WTVM. All rights reserved.