FIRST TO ALERT: Expect rain to dominate the forecast this Memorial Day weekend

FIRST TO ALERT: Expect rain to dominate the forecast this Memorial Day weekend
(Source: WTVM Storm Team 9)
(Source: WTVM Storm Team 9)

(WTVM) - As we head closer to Memorial Day weekend, wet weather still looks to dominate the forecast. The question is will a tropical system develop to influence the pattern?

Though hurricane season has not officially begun yet, it's not out of the question to see the tropics spin up a weak, pre-season storm.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center has given a disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea a 40 percent chance of tropical development over the next five days.

There is still much uncertainty in the track and intensity of the developing system, but regardless impact looks the same: the potential for heavy rain across the Gulf Coast states for the entirety of the holiday weekend.

The European model favors a more organized system (a tropical depression or storm) with a more westerly track toward Louisiana and Mississippi, while the American model keeps the system more disheveled, and takes a weak tropical low toward the Florida Peninsula.

Whether we see an actual tropical system develop and its eventual track remains to be seen; however, what does seem certain is that the Southeast will see a steady surge of tropical moisture over the holiday weekend that could bring locally heavy rain at times, high rip currents along the coast, and the potential for flooding, especially in already saturated spots from the recent unsettled weather. For those of us sticking around the Chattahoochee Valley for the holiday weekend, an additional 3-4 inches of rain could fall.

We'll continue to fine-tune the forecast for you as we head closer to Memorial Day weekend. In the meantime, keep the umbrella and WTVM Weather app handy for the week ahead-- scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain in the forecast each afternoon.

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