Same forecast, different day... Never ending summer heat continues this week. In fact, things look to get hotter Monday & especially Tuesday when highs will once again approach 100F! No significant cold fronts on the horizon either! Only sign of relief will be Thursday & Friday when exceptionally dry air works its way in from the north, which will drop our lows into the lower 60s. Unfortunately, winds will shift out of the south by next weekend, bringing back those muggies into the Valley.
TROPICAL UPDATE: Tropical Storm Humberto is meandering north of the Bahamas this morning. Fortunately, the worst weather missed Great Abaco & Grand Bahama, which were blasted by Hurricane Dorian just 2 weeks ago. Environmental conditions will continue to improve, allowing for Humberto to reach hurricane intensity at some point over the next day. Meanwhile, Humberto will begin to feel a strong weakness to its NE, allowing for a sharp turn AWAY from the US, heading in the general direction of Bermuda. Its very possible that Humberto will pass near the island as a major hurricane later this week.
Tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic hasn't really changed much since yesterdays update. With that said, National Hurricane Center has increased development chances to a HIGH 70% over the next several days. This makes sense with a fairly moist & low shear environment out ahead of the disturbance's path. Most model guidance does show some development. As far as it's long term prospects are concerned, there are no indications of this getting into the Gulf of Mexico. Most likely outcome is it feels a weakness created by Humberto, and becomes a fish storm (out to sea), though the Lesser Antilles & Virgin Islands should continue to monitor. Next name is Imelda.
Chances of an upper level low gaining tropical characteristics in the Gulf of Mexico continue to fall. Not that the chances were ever high in the first place. This shouldn't be of much concern, though it will bring some locally heavy rain & gusty winds to coastal Texas & Louisiana over the course of the week.
While I don't see any short term threats to the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Season is far from over. Lots of rising air from the MJO (favorable for Atlantic tropical activity) is poised to enter the western hemisphere in the coming weeks. Water is still plenty warm out there too, so don't be surprised if we stay busy through mid-October. Hopefully we can get the cold fronts coming soon, to keep these storms turning away!