Fantastic taste of Fall around the Valley today around the Valley, with widespread 50s & 60s to start off the day. Abundant sunshine will allow for us to warm up into the 80s, and Friday Night Football looks perfect with temps falling into the 60s. As for this weekend, bright sunshine is expected, with a warming trend expected with highs back in the 90s by Sunday. Monday is the first day of Fall, but we'll be heading in the wrong direction! Mammoth dome of heat will build across the southeast, with Georgia & Alabama being ground zero. Highs will soar into the mid to upper 90s by the end of next week, threatening record highs, with no end in sight. Speaking of that, it might not rain again for the rest of September in the vast majority of our area, which will only worsen drought conditions.
TROPICS: The Atlantic Basin is on fire this morning!
JERRY remains a Category 2 hurricane, but looks much more disorganized on satellite compared to last night. Northerly wind shear is blasting the hurricane, and its center is partially exposed on visible satellite. Jerry looks to brush by just to the north of the Leeward islands over the next couple of days bringing squally weather. Fortunately, the core looks to avoid the NW Caribbean islands. Jerry will turn northward on Monday, feeling a weakness left behind by HUMBERTO, and could threaten Bermuda later next week. Good news is Jerry is not a threat to the Bahamas & United States.
A tropical wave in the central Caribbean continues to fire tons of showers & storms. The wave will head westward towards Jamaica & the western Caribbean before entering the Gulf next week. It's currently being blasted with wind shear, and conditions look to remain unfavorable for the next several days. Models don't do much with it either, but its worth watching for some funny business, as models didn't do much with IMELDA either. It's September after all!
A vigorous tropical wave about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles or behind Jerry is lighting up this morning with showers and storms. There is some model support of a tropical depression developing as it approaches the southern Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and the eastern Caribbean early next week. NHC currently has a 30% chance of development, but I suspect chances will go up with time.
A powerful tropical wave is expected to exit Africa this weekend. Strong model support backed by very favorable conditions suggest this wave will quickly develop after crossing into the eastern Atlantic. Model guidance unanimously develop this feature into a formidable Cape Verde hurricane. Long term future of this feature is uncertain, though models currently suggest a safe re-curvature out to sea. Next name on the list is Karen.
Overall conditions across the Atlantic look to remain favorable well into October. It’s critical that we stay vigilant. The US faced significant hurricane threats the last 3 years in October--Matthew, Nate, and Michael.