LATEST: Disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico remains "Potential Tropical Cyclone SIXTEEN" this evening, as it's not yet well-organized enough to be declared Subtropical Storm NESTOR. Satellite imagery shows SIXTEEN is very large, and all of that tropical moisture is on it's way towards the northern gulf coast, and southeast US.
TRACK: NESTOR will race northeastward over the next few days, passing SE of the mouth of the Mississippi River Friday, and making landfall near Panama City, Florida on Saturday morning. NESTOR's center will pass well south of Columbus Saturday afternoon. By Sunday, NESTOR will be in North Carolina, far away.
INTENSITY: NESTOR will be a hybrid type system, and will be labeled Subtropical Storm NESTOR. What does this mean? It just means it won't be fully tropical. Which means the worst impacts will be felt well north & east from where the center is. Unlike a hurricane, impacts will be spread out. NESTOR should have winds around 40-50MPH as it passes south of us on Saturday.
IMPACTS & TIMING: After a partly sunny start, high clouds will fill in on Friday afternoon. Rain will hold off until late Friday night. However, rain bands will rapidly overspread the area from SW to NE Saturday morning and continue throughout the day. Because NESTOR will be racing northeast, this will limit heavy rain threat. I’m still expecting widespread totals of 1-3″ across the Valley, with isolated totals as high as 5″. Highest rainfall totals will be south & east of Columbus, with lesser totals north of highway 80 & I-85. Winds won’t be strong, but will generally gust 20-30MPH at their peak Saturday afternoon. Gusts could approach 40MPH south of Columbus, say in Eufaula, Americus & Albany where NESTOR’s center will pass closer to. Weather will rapidly improve Sunday, with clearing in the afternoon!