Watching the Gulf

Dylan's Sunday Forecast

COLUMBUS, Ga. (WTVM) - A strong area of high pressure will keep our weather hot & dry every day through Wednesday. Expect lots of sunshine with a few puffy clouds mixed in and lower humidity during the day, and mostly clear & pleasant nights. Highs will generally be around 90, with lows in the upper 60s.

A surge of tropical moisture will bring better rain chances & increased cloud cover for the 2nd half of the work week into next weekend. This will cause our highs to dip back down into the upper 80s by the weekend & beyond.

TROPICAL UPDATE: Hurricane Season begins tomorrow, and right on cue we're watching the Gulf of Mexico.

There is growing consensus that tropical development will occur in the southern Gulf or Bay of Campeche mid to late week, with the National Hurricane Center giving a medium 50% chance of development over the next 5 days.

This is all a part of a broad area of low pressure currently sitting over Central America, and embedded within it the remnants of Tropical Storm Amanda, which made landfall in Guatemala this morning. Over the next couple of days, all of this tropical energy will slide into the Bay of Campeche & southern Gulf of Mexico. However, this tropical disturbance is expected to stall down there until at least late week. If development were to occur, it's impossible to know the exact track at this time, with computer model's showing landfall from central Texas to the Florida panhandle sometime next week.

Water temperatures in the Gulf are plenty warm for tropical development, but wind shear should be strong enough to keep the system a weak, sloppy rain-maker. We're talking early June, after all!

The main risks with early season tropical systems is heavy rainfall, especially east of where it tracks. At this time it’s unclear where the greatest impacts if any will occur. The good news is that if you live along or near the Gulf Coast, we have plenty of time to watch!

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